Things keep humming along at Broadcom, which on Thursday evening reported results that topped expectations, and for its outlook as well. 

However, the disappointment that has sent the stock down three percent in early trading, to $254.60, appears to stem from the company failing to talk about what’s in store for 2027. 

The bulls are putting that aside at the moment, figuring there’s plenty of time for Broadcom to talk about fiscal 2027 given that we are only halfway through fiscal 2025 (ending in October.)

The growth, meantime, is off the charts. Broadcom beat its own target for artificial intelligence-related chip sales last quarter, which had been forty-four percent growth, year over year, instead delivering forty-six percent, at a total of $4.4 billion. And for this quarter, that rate is going to speed up to sixty percent.

It was a report very much consistent with the positive trend seen in March, only more so..

Kudos to Raimo Lenschow of Barclays, who on March 30th took the side of database vendor MongoDB, arguing the shares were too cheap after what had been a twenty-five percent decline since the start of the year. 

Thursday, the stock is up twelve percent at $222.73, after the company’s earnings report Wednesday evening topped expectations. 

Lenschow takes a victory lap today, raising his price target to $270 from $252, noting that the principle element in the results was the company’s “Atlas” database, which makes up over two thirds of quarterly revenue, seeing its sales growth speed up for the first time in over two years, from twenty-four percent sales growth last quarter to twenty-six percent this time around. 

That’s a big relief for investors, as the product had been experiencing a profound slowdown for over two years now, the principle worry for the stock for a long time. 

Returns for investing, as opposed to random speculation, come over many years, as the best names are given a chance to work.

The TL20 group of stocks to consider is up 190% Thursday since its inception on July 15th of 2022, setting a new high for the group, surpassing the 187% achieved on January 22nd. That’s across five rebalancing events since the original group. 

That return is 2.7 times the return of the Nasdaq CompositeIndex in that same time. 

• The week that ended May 30th, an abbreviated week with Monday’s Memorial Day holiday in the US, was a good one for stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising 2%, lifted by most of large cap tech, with Oracle being the best performer, up 6% for the week, and other strong names such as Broadcom, Samsung, Texas Instruments, Meta, Nvidia, Apple, etc.

• We’re past the thick of earnings season, the tariff talk has cooled a bit, and tech has come roaring back. As just one indicator, the TL20 group of stocks to consider ended the week up four percent for the year versus the one-percent decline of the Nasdaq and a half-point gain of the Standard & Poor’s 500. 

Equity research types love puns, in good times, and in bad. 

The news Tuesday is very good for shares of Credo Technology Group, which is soaring by over eighteen percent, at $72.47, the exact opposite of the plunge in the stock back in March.

With a pun at the ready, TD Cowen’s Josh Buchalter declares that “CREDOn’t have anything to pick on.” 

In the March earnings report, the problem was that among Credo’s three biggest customers, Amazon, Microsoft, and Elon Musk’s xAI, Amazon made up an amazing eighty-six percent of revenue last quarter, raising the fear of customer concentration. 

This time around, Credo not only beat expectations, as it usually does, it said Amazon dropped from eighty-six to sixty-one percent of revenue.

Buchalter and others rejoiced.

“Our business plan is to drive growth both from this broadening customer footprint, and from our largest customer, in parallel.”

The White House’s budget proposal, which goes by the much-disputed name of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” has some areas of concern for renewable energy names such as First Solar, whose stock is already down fifteen percent since the start of the year.

But, have no fear, writes Mizuho Securities’s Maheep Mandloi, who reiterates his “Top Pick” designation on First Solar on Monday, after concluding that the bill is “less dire than consensus fears.” 

The fear, as mentioned by The Washington Post’s Theodoric Meyer on Monday, the bill “would scrap credits for [renewable energy] projects that don’t start construction within 60 days of Trump signing the bill into law,” an effort to swiftly roll back tax credits that were given to the group by Democrats in 2022. 

For the past year, Nvidia has been going after Arista Networks in the ethernet networking market, leveraging its dominance in artificial intelligence in order to sell its own flavor of ethernet networking, called Spectrum-X.

One happy possibility is that there doesn’t have to be one winner, but rather both Nvidia and Arista will thrive because the whole market will grow “dramatically” in the next five years, according to Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI.

Daryanani on Wednesday offered a thirty-six page primer on what’s called the “back-end” AI networking market. The back end of AI means the connections that happen between groups of GPU chips, either along the rear of a cabinet full of racks of the chips, or between the individual racks, or even long distance, between AI data centers.

Two of the most talked-about items from Wednesday’s earnings are, of course, Nvidia and Salesforce, with their shares Thursday going in opposite directions, Nvidia up four percent at $138.52 and Salesforce down five percent at $261.91.

Price targets are rising for Nvidia today, and some of the numbers in the forecasts are getting to be simply staggering. Merrill Lynch’s Vivek Arya, reiterating a Buy rating, and raising his price target to $180 from $160, models profit more than doubling from this year’s projected $4.37 a share.

“Our FY28E (effectively CY27E) pro forma EPS of $7.23 is aligned with $277 billion in data center sales and $325-$350 billion TAM [total addressable market] (at 80-85% NVDA share),” writes Arya. “If we use a higher industry TAM assumption of $450-$500 billion and same NVDA share, it paves the way for $10+ in CY27/FY28E pro forma EPS, conceptually.”

Update: Sure enough, there was not much upside to Nvidia’s report, with the smallest revenue upside in two years, 1.7%. And the sales outlook for this quarter, $44 billion to $45.9 billion, actually came in below the consensus estimate, $45.8 billion, for the first time in over two years.

But the stock is up five percent in early trading, and price targets are rising to the $210 mark. Were it not for U.S. restrictions on the company’s sales into China, Nvidia would have booked another eight billion dollars in the quarter. So, the happy result is that things turned out just fine, with revenue from the data center, i.e., chips for artificial intelligence, rising by seventy-three percent, to $39.1 billion. 

That’s a pretty staggering amount of growth at that scale in dollar terms. You’ll get no complaint from me: this business continues to perform very, very well. 

I’ll be back in a little while with commentary from the Street.

Nvidia is one of the TL20 stocks worth considering, and it is up an amazing 755% since I put it in the first cohort, in July of 2022.

• Welcome to an abbreviated trading week, with markets closed for the Monday Memorial Day holiday in the U.S.

• The preceding week, the week ending May 23rd, was a poor one for stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2% and the Standard & Poor’s 500 declined 3%.

• Mega-Cap tech generally traded down, though Alphabet was a bright spot, thanks to its “Google I/O” conference, and the discussion of how it will be spreading its “AI Mode” text summaries throughout its paid search business. That was well-received by analysts.

• The proximate cause for stocks’ decline was the budget bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, which observers expect will drive the U.S. national debt from a hundred percent of the economy to a hundred and thirty-four percent in a decade from now.

Informatica is a company that has had a different lifetimes. It was founded in 1993, taken private in 2015 by a private equity group, and then spun public again in October of 2021.

And on Tuesday, the company began a new chapter, as software giant Salesforce said it agreed to acquire the company for eight billion dollars, or $25 per share in cash. The stock had already jumped seventeen percent on Friday as Bloomberg reported on the potential for the deal.

It’s not surprising to me that Informatica is being taken out. For one thing, the deal has been rumored for over a year now. For another thing, Informatica has minimal revenue growth, as it has a large component of legacy software contracts that have been in long-term decline. That leaves Informatica as less desirable to software investors than peers with still high growth such as Snowflake.

You can read about the whole history of Informatica in my many interviews with CEO Amit Walia, the most recent of which was last summer.

For Salesforce, which also has minimal revenue growth, the deal is seen by the Street as an attempt to bolster “agentic AI” that has yet to really “move the needle” for Salesforce.

Shares of chip giant Analog Devices sold off by nearly five percent on Thursday, a striking decline given it followed the seventh quarter in a row the company’s results have topped consensus, and the fifth quarter in a row its outlook was better than expected — in both cases, by the most upside in years.

I wrote in February that the company was finally seeing a recovery from roughly two years of malaise in its markets for chips for a diverse set of products in the industrial and automative markets. The numbers Thursday morning confirmed that. 

It’s a simple story: chips are cyclical, they go through periods of boom and bust, and so when a market has burned down inventory and is ready to buy more, that’s a very clear positive for a chip-maker such as Analog Devices.

This has been a busy week for gigantic conferences from tech giants, including the keynote by Nvidia’s Jensen Huang at Computex on Monday, and Microsoft’s BUILD developer conference, also Monday, Dell’s Dell World show in Las Vegas on Monday and Tuesday, and Google’s “Google I/O” show on Tuesday.

In the case of the Google I/O show, the main event were many revisions to Google’s basic search function.

Google announced it is making the “AI Mode” available to all U.S. users of search, and clearly the intention is to spread it globally. This is where Google has a tab that populates with answers rather than the traditional links.

Along with spreading AI mode, the company is adding in all sorts of “agentic” functions, such as searching your gmail, or providing a lengthy research report, rather than a link, in response to queries. There’s also a hook into commerce as well, as the bot will direct you more readily to online product listings, and use your picture to show you how you might look in apparel selections.

As I wrote in February, before we all became completely distracted by talk of the U.S.’s tariff moves, the software industry has been climbing out of a multiyear slump, with some of the best names experiencing rising rates of sales and faster acquisition of customers.

One of the names I highlighted then, Snowflake, again reported encouraging results on Wednesday evening. And as in February, its shares popped in late trading, rising eight percent, the third quarter in a row the shares have jumped on results.

As in February, the metrics that matter for Snowflake showed momentum.

How bad is the outlook for Tesla? Rather scary, just take it from a bull on the stock.

Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, who rates the shares Overweight, with a $410 price target, about nineteen percent above Tuesday’s close of $343.82, on Tuesday writes in his latest missive that China “may have already won the EV battle.”

He thinks Tesla could be clobbered by the latest entrant, the forthcoming SUV from Xiaomi, the scrappy Chinese handset maker. Xiaomi’s first SUV, the “SU7,” was a stunning vehicle, with looks of a Porsche, and the price of a Volkswagen iD3, a compact EV, notes Jonas.

The SU7 sold a hundred and twenty thousand units in its first thirty-six hours, he notes.

This new model, the “YU7,” pictured above, which is expected to be unveiled on Thursday, “will replicate that success,” according to Jonas’s colleague, Andy Meng.

It’s been a busy few days for Jensen Huang of Nvidia. The CEO spent last week riding U.S. President Donald Trump’s coattails in the Middle East, striking deals for potentially billions of dollars in additional annual revenue in chip sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 

And then, Huang was onstage in Taipei, Taiwan Monday morning, headlining the gigantic Computex conference. I wrote up a bunch of the announcements for ZDNet. One of the things that most struck me is how the company is proliferating its code. For example, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia’s supplier, is spreading Nvidia’s software throughout key chip design and manufacturing processes. 

The Street was focused on something else perhaps pretty significant, called “NVLink Fusion.” 

The NVLink product is a very fast, short-range networking connection made by Nvidia to connect hundreds or thousands of GPU chips in a system. Nvidia has evolved from a chip maker to a designer of extraordinarily complex machines that fill a whole rack of equipment. NVLink is how they do it. 

Chip-equipment giant Applied Materials has been a very tough moving target for the Street.

Over a month ago, analysts cut price targets on the stock to account for what they expected would be diminished business as a result of U.S. president Donald Trump’s global tariff regime.

The shares actually rallied subsequently, rising nineteen percent in the past month. But, it turns out, those cuts weren’t enough, as almost everyone is again cutting price targets on Friday morning, following Applied’s second-quarter fiscal earnings report Thursday evening.

The stock is down six percent today, at $163.73.

The report itself was fairly standard stuff from Applied, with revenue and profit that topped expectations as usual. But it was also the third quarter in a row that the revenue outlook for the current quarter came in below consensus.

Today’s drop of six percent in the stock is the fifth quarter in a row that Applied shares have sold off on its announcement — a consequence of just how complex it is at the moment to get comfortable with Applied’s prospects.

The first quarterly report of a newly public company typically reveals some stuff people didn’t expect when the company was pitching its stock.

You already knew spending was enormous on the part of CoreWeave of Livingston, New Jersey, which went public in March. But Wednesday night’s first-quarter report revealed even higher expenses that are diminishing its profit outlook this year.

The shares fell sharply in late trading Wednesday, and are down four percent today, at $65.27, but that’s after a very healthy seventy-percent return since the March 28th IPO,

CoreWeave is a competitor of sorts to the Big Three cloud computing operators, Alphabet’s Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. The company combines GPU chips to run massive AI projects that would be too expensive for customers to build on their own. That comes with big expenses.

• This is a two-week recap since the last podcast on April 28th.

• We’re now done with the two heaviest weeks of the earnings season, and it’s been overall a very positive one. We’ve had a flood of earnings reports in the past two weeks, over 150. 

• There have been very few disasters, and quite a few positive reports.

• More than earnings results, it’s really been the news of a thaw in the tariff and trade situation that had so scared investors. That has produced a “risk-on” behavior. 

• During these two weeks, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index have largely recouped their losses for the year. The TL20 group of stocks worth considering has done even better, driven by gains in Seagate Technology, Coherent, and Nvidia. 

Absci is a startup biotech company founded in 2011. I’ve been following the company since 2022, and visited their satellite research office on 57th Street in Manhattan in December of that year to profile founder and CEO Sean McClain. 

To date, there’s been little to report about Absci, a “development-stage” company, but Tuesday evening was a big deal.

For the first time in the history of the company, Absci is in clinical trials for a drug. On Monday, it began dosing participants in a Phase I clinical trial for ABS-101, the company’s proposed antibody against the autoimmune condition known as inflammatory bowel disease. 

Getting a drug into the clinic is a big deal, and something of a milestone when it’s a drug developed using “generative” artificial intelligence. In fact, every time an AI drug even makes it to trials, it could be considered a landmark. As Nature Magazine’s Melanie Senior reported in December, despite years of promises from AI startups, “No AI-enabled drug candidate has yet made it past regulators, despite several being in clinical trials.”

“Where we have real technology and platform advantage, we have, I think, the right to win.”

The surge of more than four percent in the Nasdaq Composite Index on Monday, prompted by the news that the White House and China and other nations are engaging in a “massive de-escalation” of tariff measures, was enjoyed by stocks of all different corners of tech.

Among double-digit gainers Monday afternoon were small-caps such as Applied Optoelectronics, up twenty-five percent; health IT provider Movano, up sixteen percent; and large-cap names such as Shopify, up almost fifteen percent.

Among names that may be directly boosted by the ninety-day pause, according to Citigroup’s Alicia Yap, is Pinduoduo, owner of online discount shopping operation Temu, along with other “cross-border sellers.” Yap raised her rating on the stock to Buy from Neutral, and raised her price target to $165 from $127.

And so we come to the end of a very packed earnings week, which has turned out to be fairly positive, on the whole. See the table at the bottom of the post for the full results.

This week had a bit of the underdogs turning into top dogs.

For example, quantum computing maker D-Wave Computing, which is the odd one in the quantum group, being that it uses an “analog” form of quantum, rather than gates (more here), rose more than fifty percent on Thursday after it said it booked its first system sale to a research house. That lead to revenue for the March quarter topping expectations by fifty percent, $15 million.

That will help D-Wave to close the gap with the revenue outperformance of competitor IonQ. IonQ’s own result, on Wednesday, was also nice, and shares rose nine percent the next day. 

I would note that D-Wave doesn’t forecast quarter to quarter, so you don’t know how much of this quarter’s success will carry through the rest of the year.

Sometimes the worst news is a little relief for investors. Shares of Advanced Micro Devices are up fractionally after the company Tuesday evening beat expectations, but also said that restrictions on sales of the most-advanced chips to China will hurt its sales the next two quarters by a combined $1.5 billion.

The stock has gotten one big vote of confidence today, from Merrill Lynch’s Vivek Arya raises his rating on the shares to a Buy from Neutral, and hikes his price target to $120 from $105, which is pretty good upside from today’s $99.19.

Arya writes that AMD’s $1.5-billion warning “addresses our pre-call concerns re China AI restriction headwinds and NVDA GPU competition.”

As long as nothing bad happens again with tariffs — and it could very well happen — some companies are seeing delightful business trends.

Fiber-optic vendor Lumentum, for example, is seeing no slowdown in its market for transceivers it sells to the cloud computing giants.

The stock is up six percent in early trading on Wednesday after the company not only beat expectations Tuesday night but also reaffirmed a plan it laid out last month to go from just under $500 million in revenue this past quarter to as much as $750 million per quarter by 2027.

The company’s sales to the cloud computing giants, the majority of its revenue, increased a very healthy sixteen percent in the quarter.

Palantir is “on fire,” according to founder and CEO Alex Karp, after the company beat revenue and profit expectations Monday evening, and raised its year outlook well above consensus, driven by a speed-up in most metrics, including its sales growth.

Said Karp, “We were the freak show,” recalling a time when the company found it hard to work with corporate America. Sales to U.S. firms rose seventy-one percent, year over year, a speed-up from the prior quarter. “We spent 20 years for this moment,” he said. 

Most analysts are having the same problem they had back in February: A very good report, an insane valuation. The stock is actually down in early trading by about eight percent. That is the same thing that happened a year ago in May. I suspect it is no big deal, merely a “sell-on-the-news” kind of trade.

Ever since tariff jitters emerged on April 2nd, with the White House’s announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs on nations around the world, Netflix and other media names have been a safe haven. The stock was up twenty-four percent from that day through last Friday’s close.

But it may no longer be such a haven. The stock is down a little over a point today as the Street responds to the White House over the weekend announced it will direct the U.S. Department of Commerce to impose a one-hundred-percent tariff on overseas films, characterizing foreign films as a national security threat.

As The Wall Street Journal’s Ben Fritz relates, foreign production is something Netflix, and many other U.S. media producers and distributors, rely on.

Among the losers of earnings season Friday morning is Apple, which has gotten several price target cuts and two downgrades to the equivalent of Sell, after Tim Cook warned of much higher potential costs for the company, while saying that he can’t fully anticipate what will happen.

The stock is down five percent at $203.37.

The results of the March quarter that Apple reported Thursday evening were actually not bad, with iPhone revenue up two percent, Mac computer sales up seven percent, and iPad sales up fifteen percent, and overall revenue higher than expected.

The issue is really the tariff outlook Apple stopped forecasting its current quarter some years ago, so there’s no formal outlook on what things look like for the June quarter.

“If we go through a long period of uncertainty now, what will happen is AI will become the driver for maintaining headcount and increasing production.”